ETF CORNER

GLD : Chart of the week ... by far !

SPY : In case we close above $137.20 !

The SPY is reluctant  to stop the "rally mode".  The break and close above $137.20 seems close at hand now as i'm typing this.

The real question now is :

What happens if we get above $137.20. Would everyone who was on the sidelines pile in all together and provoke another major upleg ? Will the shorts freak out ?

I have my own vison of how this could unfold.

The fact that the markets have been cruising higher evethough technical signs were flashing bearish signals got lots of buyers underinvested.

Maybe a push higher near SPX1500 by this summer will decisively bring everyone into believing it's a new Bull Market again , like feeling safe going into a brothel with no condoms !

This would perfectly setup for the mother of all downside reversal in the fall of 2012, especially if Obama gets re-elected.

The three peaks and a doomed house  looks like a decent proposal to me if and only if, we close above $137.20.

 

SPY : Triangle consolidation

As long as we don't close above $137.20 I am going to stick with that fellow right here !

In the near term we should see some sort of consolidation below $137.20 in a shape of a triangle ...

SPY : Hits and Misses

This weekend I wanted to share with everyone my SPY calls in the past year in order to see what went right and what went wrong.

My hits and misses !

(1) I called for a topping formation on June 2nd 2011 (Click Here) which turned out to be quite precise.

(2) On July 14 th I warned for the last bounce before the crash (Click Here), which did in fact occur !

(3) On August 9 th I called for a sharp Bear Market Rally, unfortunately it took another lower low a month later in order for the rally to start. So not a great call there.

(4) October 27th made to call for a key reversal  which indeed cause a sharp selloff.

(5) November 25 th called for a bounce up to $123 !

(6) January 19th 2012 ,although the bounce went higher than anticipated,I still believed we could come to a halt at $133/$132. Bad call !

My new call now is that we don't break above the previous highs of 2011, that is $137.20. If we do break above, I will have to review the topping formation. More on Monday. Have a great weekend everyone.