Here is a chart of the 50 day moving average of the SPX 500 since the bottom of march 2009.
A few things come to mind.
All five bottoms (a,b,c,d,e) show higher highs.
The rallies are getting weaker after every bottom.
So maybe the SPX 500 is going to start to stagnate soon... We might have a flat 50 day mov avg for a while .. but ...
One thing that I will be putting a lot of emphasis on in order to call for a return of the Bear Market will be to see the 50 day mov avg making a lower low than the previous bottom. In this instance if/when the 50 day mov avg gets below point (e) that would probably mean that the QE's cannot contribute to additional gains in the equity markets.
I will be watching...