March 9th 2009, the cover was plain Bearish and it was the bottom (Click Here).
April 24th 2010 , the cover was plain Bullish with "Dow Jones 12.000" as the next stop (Click Here). Boys and girls ... this was a week prior to the flash crash !!!
Today, we have a freakin' cover with DOW JONES 15.000 written so big all over it that even Stevie Wonder could see it ! That cover is heavily Bullish and I suspect that sooner rather than later the Bulls are going to be in for an ugly suprise !
It always amazes me how people can go from an extreme to another, and how this can help you find some turning points.
I have a friend of mine who lives in Italy. He invested all his savings in long term Italian bonds (BTP) for about three years now. Needless to say that he was somehow frightened when the crisis on Italian bonds unfolded during this summer. I remember that he sent me an email on facebook on November 7th asking me whether Italy would go bust and what he should do. He was totally in panic mode and about to hit the sell button.
What's interesting now is that I got a message from him on my Facebook wall telling me how excited he was (with a big Yahoooooo) about the bounce in Italian bonds since early november.
Given the fact that he gave me the bottom in early november, i suspect that given his current euphoric mood there is a very substantial likelihood that the bounce in Italian bonds is nearly over and that another selloff is imminent.
This will put pressure again on the European equity markets and the EUR/USD.
My advice to my Italian friend today was : "Sell some!"
