Update on the last post ! I am bullish on Commodities since mid mid March click here ! Also bullish on Oil since mid march click here ! I will not turn negative on Oil & Commodities unless the diagonal support lines in the following charts of USO and DBC are broken ! I use USO and DBC as proxies for the other ETF's in the Oil & Commodities universe such as : RJI,DJP,DXO,UCO,UCD,USO,DBA,DBC,MOO,GSG,KOL,UNG etc...
Bullish on oil & commodities until the support line of this new uptrend is broken. The trend is your "amigo"..... for now ! That holds true also for the following ETF's(RJI,DJP,DXO,UCO,UCD,USO,DBA,DBC,MOO,GSG).
I think that is time now to relax and look for which ETF's you will be willing to buy. I believe that the next leg up in US indicies that will start sometime in May and will go from (approx. SP 750 to SP 950 maybe more) will be orchestrated by Oil & Commodities. These two groups did not really participate in the last rally (which was essentially technology stocks and financials). I have analysed some charts during the previous two months regarding Oil&Commodity ETF's and brought to your attention that they were in a bottoming process. Here are two links for example :
Bottoming process in Oil ETFs (click here)
Bottoming process in Commodities (click here)
To illustrate better what I have in mind... i was looking for an inverted head and shoulder bottoming process for these two groups. Although the pattern may not be perfect on the charts.. I think it is time to scale in on USO,DBC,DBA,MOO,DJP,RJI,UNG while the US indicies remain in a corrective phase in the coming weeks. This summer 2009 Oil&Commodity will be boiling hot in my view !
Here is ,for example, what i was expecting on USO and DBC a few weeks ago. They now look like ETF's you would like to start accumulating in the next trading weeks.
DBC before & after:
USO before & after :
My target on USO remains $46-$47 for the end of 2009.
The bullish case for Oil ETF's is clear !
Here is an update on the following Oil ETF's :
DXO : Powershares DB Crude Oil Double Long
UCO : Proshares Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil
DTO : Powershares DB Crude Oil Double Short
SCO : Proshares Ultra Short DJ-AIG Oil
