ETF CORNER

TLT/TNX : US Tresaury collapse !

It's coming ! Long term US treasury bills are going to collapse ! But when ?

Based on this long term chart of the 30 year tresury yields you can see the formation of this falling wedge.

I suspect we get a final low in 2013 and then the start of the rise from 2% up to 5.5% sometime in late 2015, early 2016.

This will lead to another big downleg in US housing prices, with yields rocketing higher..

So if you are trying to bottom fish housing, i suggest waiting another 3 years.

 

TLT / DBC : Week end musings

TLT : Short term view

SPY/TLT : Another thing that I'm looking at

There is still some room on the upside for DBC until I get some interest in getting short again.

I'm looking also at TLT, it seems that TLT could get a little below $120 before I get a little more excited on the short side on the S&P 500.

I will be talking about the EUR/USD tomorrow vs the S&P 500.