ETF CORNER

USO : The bottom is gone, the top is close !

I don't know if you folks recall but I made it clear about a bottom in oil (USO) on March 9 th 2009 : (Click Here) . And i have made several updates since then ! I was bullish all this time on USO,DXO,UCO and bearish on DTO ! Now it seems that the tables might start to turn ! I am calling for the "beginning" of the topping process for Oil :USO,DXO,UCO and the beginning of the bottoming process for DTO.

USO is getting overbought and will meet its fibonnaci retracement as well as its declining 200 day moving average ! These three ingredients will be very challenging for USO and the bullish Oil ETF's ! I thus advise you to start reducing exposure to Oil ETF's ! The topping process will take some time, but the upside potential in oil for the rest of 2009 is very limited in my view. We might get another high for USO around $45 this summer... but that would be it !!!

USO : United States Oil Fund

DXO : Double long Oil

UCO : Proshares Ultra Crude oil.

DTO : Double short Oil.

Update USO,DBC : Commodities and Oil ETF's.

Update on the last post ! I am bullish on Commodities since mid mid March click here !  Also bullish on Oil since mid march click here !  I will not turn negative on Oil & Commodities unless the diagonal support lines in the following charts of USO and DBC are broken ! I use USO and DBC as proxies for the other ETF's in the Oil & Commodities universe such as : RJI,DJP,DXO,UCO,UCD,USO,DBA,DBC,MOO,GSG,KOL,UNG etc...

Oil & Commodities : USO & DBC ... the trend is our friend !

Bullish on oil & commodities until the support line of this new uptrend is broken. The trend is your "amigo"..... for now ! That holds true also for the following ETF's(RJI,DJP,DXO,UCO,UCD,USO,DBA,DBC,MOO,GSG).

Oil,Commodities, and S&P500 : The bottoming process of 2009.

As i have posted since February 26 th (you can click on all the related oil ETF's int the "Categories section" to see how I tried to track the whole bottoming process in Oil ETF's (USO,DXO,SCO,DTO) for about more than two months. The same holds true for Commodities (click here) . (DBC,DBA,RJI,MOO,UCO). I believe that the bottoming process is now complete. I also think that regarding the SPY (S&P 500) the bottoming process will mirror the bottoming process of OIl & Commodities. In other words, the chart of the S&P 500 in a month and a half could look just like the chart of today's USO and all the other commodity related ETF's.

Note that I still believe that these are just intermediate term bottoms  (multi month or up to a year) ! Yes .. we will probably see lower prices in months or years to come !!

Here are the comparison of USO and SPY (the same holds true if you substitute USO with any other commodity ETF.

USO vs SPY : SPY could mirror the action in USO (DBC,DBA etc....)